According to the report, there are supposedly 178,200 Klamath River Chinook swimming in the ocean in 2024. While this number is still very low, it’s 75,700 more than what was forecast for 2023. From 2011 through 2022, the average ocean abundance for the Klamath was roughly 278,000.

For the Sacramento River, the report forecasts 213,622 Chinook to be swimming in the ocean. This represents the 2nd lowest number in the last 15 years, However, it’s 43,800 more than predicted in 2023.

In 2023, the preseason ocean abundance on the Sacramento was 169,767 while the postseason numbers came in at 139,500. A difference of 30,267 Chinook. For the Klamath, the preseason number was 102,500 while the postseason estimate came in at 174,000. That’s a difference of over 71,000 salmon. Using the current models, these forecasts can have huge variations as seen above.

The fate of both the Sacramento and Klamath Rivers will be decided at the PFMC meeting March 6-11 in Fresno. There’s a high probability that major restrictions will once again be in place for all of our salmon fishing in 2024. And don’t be surprised if one of the three ocean salmon alternatives included the words “closed.”

Next up is CDFW’s annual salmon information meeting, which will be held Friday, March 1. This meeting covers 2023 spawner abundances returning to the Central Valley and Klamath Basins, 2024 abundance forecasts, and management context guiding the development and implementation of 2024 ocean salmon fisheries. How to join the webinar and a link to the agenda can be found here.

The weather ahead
According to Kathleen Zontos of Eureka’s National Weather Service office, we’re in for a rainy and snowy weekend on the North Coast. “The main rain front will arrive Thursday,” said Zontos. “The second front will arrive Friday and Saturday, but it’s looking like this will produce more snow than rain. Over the 72-hour period from Thursday morning to Sunday morning we’ll see some impressive rainfall totals. In the Smith basin, we’re looking at 3 to 6 inches, with the highest totals falling in the mountains. In the Mad/Humboldt area, we could see 3 to 5 inches. The South Fork Eel/Mendo area could see 4 to 5 inches. Sunday we’ll continue to see lingering showers. Rain will continue early next week along with snowmelt that will keep the river levels up.”

The Rivers:
Mad
The Mad saw some of the best conditions of the season the last two days, and that isn’t saying much. The river was down to 8.5 feet with some visibility Wednesday, but it’s now back on the rise and headed towards 12 feet by Thursday evening. A few fish were caught Tuesday and Wednesday, but overall scores have been low. Hatchery returns are on the low-side as well.

Main stem Eel
The main Eel was starting to turn green Wednesday, but was big. Thursday’s rain dashed any hopes of the river dropping into shape anytime soon. Flows are predicted to reach 43,000 cfs at Scotia by Saturday morning. Will need a couple weeks of dry weather before it drops into fishable shape.

South Fork Eel
The South Fork was in fishable shape Tuesday and Wednesday and a few boats took advantage drifting in the Benbow/Miranda areas. The river had good color, but flows were still on the big-side. Reportedly, the fishing was tough, but a few were caught. It blew out again Thursday morning and won’t fish again until at least late next week, depending on how much rain falls and snow melts early next week.

Van Duzen
The Van Duzen was down to a fishable height the last few days, but blew out again Thursday. Flows are predicted to reach 4,400 cfs Thursday evening at Bridgeville. If the predictions hold, it could be fishable by mid-week.

Smith
The Smith was back on the rise Thursday morning after a little more than two inches of rain fell in the morning. It’s predicted to peak at just under 14 feet at Jed Smith Thursday night and should be on the drop through the weekend. Will likely be the only game in town for some time. Fishing has been tough, but hopefully this rise will bring down some spawners and bring in some fresh fish.

Southern Oregon rivers
After a slow February, steelhead fishing took off on the Chetco this week, with the handful of guides still fishing reporting two to six fish per boat reports Andy Martin of Wild Rivers Fishing. “Plunkers also have been catching steelhead from shore with Spin-N-Glos,” said Martin. “A mix of fresh and spawned out fish are being caught, with quite a few hatchery fish on the lower end, many of them brand new. A storm on Wednesday likely will blow the river out by Thursday. The Elk and Sixes also received fresh steelhead over the weekend and early this week. New steelhead also arrived on the Rogue River just above Gold Beach. A few jet boaters are now anchoring, hoping to get the first spring salmon of the year.”

Brookings ocean report
According to Martin, the lingcod and rockfish action has been hot out of Brookings, although rough weather returned Monday, and big swells are expected through the weekend. “Lingcod are spawning in shallow water. Thick schools of rockfish are biting near Bird Island and House Rock.”