The Pacific Fishery Management Council released its “Review of 2023 Ocean Salmon Fisheries” report last week and the news was better than expected. Based on an ocean abundance of 102,500 Klamath River fall Chinook thought to be swimming in the ocean last fall, forecasters predicted roughly 39,858 adults would return to the river. Fortunately, the run was a little more robust than the preseason predictions. A total of 65,904 adults returned to the river, with 41,623 escaping to natural spawning areas. This was a whopping 176 percent of the preseason prediction of 23,614 adults and exceeded the spawning escapement target of 40,700. The estimated hatchery return was 21,964 adults. Jack (2-year-old kings) returns to the Klamath basin were 11,673, including 9,470 that escaped to natural spawning areas. In 2021, 54,225 adults returned along with 10,350 jacks.

Spawning escapement to the upper Klamath River tributaries (Salmon, Scott and Shasta rivers), where spawning was only minimally affected by hatchery strays, totaled 7,765 compared to 9,169 in 2022. The escapement in 2023 to the Shasta River was 4,747 adults. Escapement to the Salmon and Scott rivers was 1,355 and 1,663 adults, respectively.

The above river return and escapement numbers reflect no ocean commercial or recreational salmon fishing as well as salmon closures on both the Klamath and Trinity rivers. According to the report, an estimated 53 fall Chinook were harvested in the Klamath River basin recreational fishery in 2023. Tribal adult harvest was 2,091 (Yurok: 423 adults; Hoopa Valley: 1,668 adults), which was 112 percent of the tribal allocation of 1,872.

In 2023, recreational angling for salmon in the Sacramento River and its tributaries was closed as well. A total of 133,638 hatchery and natural area adult spawners were estimated to have returned to the Sacramento River Basin in 2023, slightly lower than the 164,964 predicted. Fall Chinook returns to Sacramento River hatcheries in 2023 totaled 28,026 adults and 4,920 jacks, and escapement to natural areas was 105,612 adults and 7,013 jacks.

With the Klamath Dam removal project in full swing, what our ocean and river salmon seasons will look like in the coming year is still a work in progress and will be flushed out in the coming weeks.

Next up is the California Department of Fish and Wildlife’s Annual Salmon Information Meeting, which will be held via webinar on Friday, March 1, from 10 a.m. to 4 p.m. State and federal fishery scientists will present information on topics such as last year’s spawning escapement, estimates of forecasted ocean abundance, and management goals for 2024 sport and commercial ocean salmon seasons.

Following the Salmon Information Meeting webinar, California representatives will work together to develop a range of recommended ocean fishing season alternatives at the March 6-11 Pacific Fishery Management Council meeting in Fresno, CA. Final season recommendations will be adopted at the Council’s April 6-11 meeting in Seattle, WA.

Salmon information meeting details can be found on the CDFW’s Ocean Salmon web page.

The weather ahead
According to Kathleen Zontos of Eureka’s National Weather Service office, it’s looking like we’ll have a dry weekend. “The next chance of rain is Monday into Tuesday,” said Zontos. “Most of the rainfall will be in the Smith basin, where they could see 3/4 to 1 inch of rain over the two days. In Humboldt, we could see a 1/10 to 1/2 inch. It doesn’t look like it will have much of an impact on the Humboldt rivers. Following a dry Wednesday, Thursday and Friday are looking wet with the possibility of another Atmospheric River.”

The Rivers:
Mad
As of Thursday, the Mad was just above 11 feet (5,400 cfs) and dropping quickly. It’s forecast to drop to 8.75 feet by Monday, but a small system will bump up the flows slightly. It should be back on the drop Wednesday, just in time for another big storm coming Thursday.

Main stem Eel
The main stem Eel was down to 48,000 cfs at Scotia Thursday, and is still big and muddy. It’s not forecast to drop to a fishable level before the next rain event moves in later next week.

South Fork Eel
The South Fork is back on the drop after reaching 17,000 cfs at Miranda Tuesday morning. It’s predicted to drop through mid-next week and there could be an opportunity for green water prior to the next storm arriving Thursday or Friday.

Van Duzen
Similar to the South Fork Eel, the Van Duzen is on the drop following a peak of 8,150 cfs Tuesday near Bridgeville. If the forecast holds through next week, there’s a chance the river could be fishable Wednesday. It will likely be a short window as flows are predicted to rise Thursday as the next rainy system arrives.

Smith River
The Smith is on the drop and conditions should be excellent over the weekend, with river levels right around 9.5 to 10 feet at Jed Smith Park. A slight rise is forecast for Monday that will do more good than harm. Conditions look good for Tuesday/Wednesday, but another bigger rise is predicted for Thursday. The river was high over the weekend and early this week. There were a few boats who opted to drift, and some that plunked. Scores weren’t great for either. The fishing pressure has been pretty light.

Southern Oregon rivers
The Chetco remained high the past week, but is dropping into shape for the weekend reports Andy Martin of Wild Rivers Fishing. “Expect a mix of fresh steelhead and spawned out steelhead, said Martin. “The run is winding down, mainly because of the prolonged high water in January. The Elk and Sixes fished over the weekend, as less rain fell in Port Orford compared to Brookings and Crescent City. Fishing was fair, with a fish or two per boat. The Rogue also dropped into shape Tuesday. The Umpqua continues to be the best bet for steelhead in the region.”

Brookings ocean update
According to Martin, the ocean out of Brookings looks like it will fish Thursday and again over the weekend. “Big swells on Friday will likely keep boats at the docks. Lingcod fishing was good last week out of Brookings before the stormy weather returned.”